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Southwell Racing race analysis – Monday 20th May 2013

11:04am - Monday 20th May, 2013, written by Richard Mawer 14 Comments
Horse Racing at Southwell

Today’s Going & Weather

Southwell Racing is hosting a 7 race card on the fibresand today.

The going for racing at Southwell today has been declared as STANDARD. The stalls will be on the outside for the 7f race and on the inside for the remaining races. Here are our Southwell racing tips ,statistics and race analysis for racing:

Remember to call our popular Southwell phoneline on 0905 005 0499 for our 2 best bets of the day. You can also join our All-Weather Email Selection Service to receive our selections via email each morning by visiting All-Weather Tips Email Selection Service.

RP Vital Stats For Southwell Today

Today’s Top Travellers

The following horses have travelled the furthest distance to be at today’s meeting.

Hors
Trainer
Race
Miles
Activate Keith Dalgleish 2.30 259
Usquaebach Paddy Butler 2.30 183
Pat’s Legacy Gary Moore 5.00 171
Scribe David Evans 2.30 139
Camache Queen Joseph Tuite 4.30 133
Seven Summits Sophie Leech 3.30 126
Catchanova Eve Johnson Houghton 5.00 125
Run Of The Day Eve Johnson Houghton 3.30 125
Linroyale boy Alan Swinbank 3.30 120
Eutropius Alan Swinbank 5.30 120

First Time Blinkers Today

The following table shows horses fitted with blinkers for the first time today.

Horse
Race
Imaginary world 5.00
Silvio Dante 4.00
Spark Of Genius 4.30
Turjurman 2.30

Racing Profits Horses For Courses

Horses who have won at least 3 times at Southwell on the polytrack.

Horse Race Runs Wins Wins Over Trip
McConnell  5.00  25 8 8
Don’t Pay The Ferryman 2.30 8 5 0
Sofia’s number One 5.00 11 4 3
On The Cusp 5.00 17 4 4
Mataajir 5.00 6 3 1
Our Ivor 5.30 7 3 0
Koo And The Gang 3.30 9 3 0
Follow The Flag 3.30 27 3 1

Racing Profits Weight Watchers

Horses who have dropped in the handicap to a lower mark than they have won off over the past year on polytrack.

Horse Race Last Winning Mark Mark Today Difference
Satwa Laird 3.30 69 61 -8
Rapid Water 5.00 55 53 -2
Goldmachen 3.30 62 61 -1

Today’s Top Jockeys & Trainers

Top 10 Jockeys

The following table shows the Top 10 Jockeys for horse racing Southwell racecourse over the past 5 seasons.

Jockey
Wins – Rides
Win %
£1 Stake
Joe Fanning 83–376 22% -18.57
Tom Eaves 49–485 10% -85.14
Barry McHugh 43-240 18% -8.83
Luke Morris 35–354 10% -54.11
Hayley Turner 28–180 16% -32.47
Adrian Nicholls 27–120 23% +49.88
Franny Norton 25–195 13% +66.03
Andrew Mullen 25-157 16% +59.30
William Carson 22-166 13% -7.17
James Sullivan 20–205 10% -68.97
Tony Hamilton 19–151 13% +14.07

Stat Tip:
The Trainer / Jockey combinations of Ian Williams and Jamie Spencer with a 34% strike rate – but look out for Mark Johnston and Franny Norton on 40% or the rare partnership of jockey Pat Cosgrave and trainer Keith Dalgleish who are 3 from 4 recently.

Top 10 Trainers

The following table shows the Top 10  Trainers for Southwell over the past 5 seasons.

Trainer
Wins – Rides
Win %
£1 Stake
Mark Johnston 72–282 26% -1.02
David Nicholls 60–292 21% +161.99
Alan McCabe 47–430 11% -132.54
Bryan Smart 45–276 16% +64.75
Richard Fahey 41–244 17% +1.57
J R Jenkins 30–193 16% -28.18
Richard Guest 28–409 7% -88.93
Paul Midgley 28–301 9% -55.38
David Evans 27–140 19% +32.53
Conor Dore 25–191 13% -42.00

Stat Tip: 

Favourites

The following table shows how favourites have faired at Southwell over the last 5 Seasons.

Non-Handicap Races

By Favourite
Runs
Wins
Win %
£1 Stake
2yo 128 63 49 +3.61
3yo 216 94 44 -24.90
4yo+ 214 97 45 -6.41
Total 558 254 46 -27.70

Handicap Races

By Favourite
Runs
Wins
Win %
£1 Stake
2yo 62 20 32 -10.21
3yo 245 87 36 -32.27
4yo+ 776 243 31 -68.25
Total 1083 350 32 -110.73

Southwell Standard Times

The following table shows the standard course times for the different distances run in today’s races.

Distance
Type
Time
5f 1m 0.10s
6f 1m 12.70s
7f 1m 27.00s
1m 1/2 1m 46.1s
1m 1 1/2 1m 57.30s
1m 4f 2m 35.50s

RP Today’s Race Analysis

Remember to call our popular Southwell phoneline on 0905 005 0499 for our 2 best bets of the day. You can also join our All-Weather Email Selection Service to receive our selections via email each morning by visiting All-Weather Tips Email Selection Service.

Southwell Racing is hosting 7 race card on the polytrack..

Race 1: 2.30 – Follow Us On Twitter @BetVictorRacing Amateur Riders’ Classified Claiming Stakes – class 6 – 4yo+(0-75) – 1m6f

Not a race we would get involved with betting wise as most of the jockeys are unknown to us. Activate finished runner up here on his only start and has the best jockey on board today which counts for a lot in these races. Don’t Pay The Ferryman (USA) is a real course specialist winning 5 times here. Scribe (IRE) is a lazy horse but has thrived this winter on the AW and goes well here. It is difficult to see past Don’t Pay The Ferryman who gets our tentative vote.

Race 2: 3.00 – Corrugated Case Co Maiden Stakes – class 5 – 2yo – 5f

Interesting maiden with no course form to go. Maximilianthefirst is the yards first juvenile runner for a while and is one to note in the betting. His sire has yet to have a winner over course and distance with his juveniles. Cheeky Peta’s is interesting for a yard that has a 27% s/r with his juveniles on the AW in the past year. The sire has a decent record over course and distance with his 2 yr olds 2/13 with 5 places. Camacho has a decent record with his juveniles 2/12 with 3 places which gives hope that Will To Survive (IRE) will act on the surface. Music Stop finished last on debut albeit not beaten far and is liable to be a short price due to connections. Iffraj has yet to have a winner over 5f with his juveniles at the track. I like the look of Cheeky Peta’s profile and we are taking a chance that she will continues the trainers fine record on the AW with his juveniles and is our selection.

Race 3: 3.30 – £25 Free Bet At BetVictor.Com Handicap – class 6 – 4yo+(0-65) – 1m3f

Linroyale Boy (USA) s a course and distance winner who failed in his bid to land the hat trick last time out when being well beaten in an apprentice race. The drop back in trip and the return of Robert Winston in the saddle is a positive. Muzhil (IRE) will no doubt be popular on handicap debut but the sire is yet to have a winner at the track. Honoured (IRE) finished runner up on his only try here but comes into this on the back of a woeful effort last time out at Kempton. Run Of The Day (IRE) is still lightly raced after just the 9 runs and is very much of interest if fit after a break. She broke her maiden over course and distance and could still be well treated despite flopping the last time she ran. Satwa Laird has become dangerously well treated but the trip has to be a concern. Follow The Flag (IRE) is a course regular and course and distance winner. He is 2lb below his last winning mark and has to be considered. Koo And The Gang (IRE) is another course specialist he has to prove he stays this far though as all his winning has been done over a mile or less. As with all runners in this ownership a close market watch is advised. Akarana (IRE) will no doubt be popular after his 2nd last time out. His sire has yet to have a winner at over course and distance though which tempers enthusiasm. A trappy contest with several course specialists in the line up. We feel that Follow The Flag and Linroyale Boy are the 2 to concentrate on with preference for Linroyale Boy who can continue his progression back in trip and with Robert Winston back on board and is our selection.

Remember to call our popular Southwell phoneline on 0905 005 0499 for our 2 best bets of the day. You can also join our All-Weather Email Selection Service to receive our selections via email each morning by visiting All-Weather Tips Email Selection Service.

Race 4: 4.00 – Dowmload The BetVictor APP now Handicap – class 6 – 3yo(0-60) – 6f

Not a lot of track form to go on but that can’t be said of Constant Dream who won her only start here over 5f. She ran better than her finishing position last time out at Wolves and is very much a player back on this surface. Angels Calling was runner up last time out at Lingfield behind Fossa. They re-oppose today with Angels Calling 6lb better off but his sire has yet to have a winner at the track whereas Fossa being by Dubai Destination will thrive on it and is taken to confirm the form. Hidden Asset will no doubt prove popular with the yards record at this venue but the sire has yet to have a winner at Southwell. this looks a straight fight between Fossa and Constant Dream with slight preference for the latter who is an e/w price and is our selection.

Race 5: 4.30 – Apprenticeships At Slic Training Fillies’ Handicap – class 4 – 4yo+(0-80) – 6f

Mata Hari Blue loves it around here and was slammed by the handicapper for her 5l romp 2 runs back over 5f. She ran well last time out despite the 8lb rise and will be a short price today. She has won over course and distance so the step up in trip should pose no problems. Dancheur (IRE) is having her first start at Southwell and is a big player if taking to the surface. Her sire has a decent record over course and distance which gives hope she will handle the track. Minalisa hasn’t been seen since being a neaten favourite last time out at Ffos Las. She was sent off favourite that day suggesting there is more to come. she is also having her first start at the track which she should handle. She may well need this though on her return from a break. We think that Dancheur offers some value in this race with the yard in fine form and she is our selection.

Remember to call our popular Southwell phoneline on 0905 005 0499 for our 2 best bets of the day. You can also join our All-Weather Email Selection Service to receive our selections via email each morning by visiting All-Weather Tips Email Selection Service.

Race 6: 5.00 – BetVictor Champions League Final Money Back Handicap – class 6 – 4yo+(0-65) – 1m

A competitive handicap with some course specialists and some well handicapped horses on show. Sofia’s Number One (USA) is looking for a 4 timer having won her last 2 here at Southwell. she is up 4lb for a 3/4 length win over the frustrating Silly Billy which makes life harder but she cannot be ruled out in her current form. Pat’s Legacy was a well backed favourite last time out on his first start for Gary Moore suggesting this well handicapped horse in showing plenty at home. He is having his first start at Southwell and is a player if taking to the surface. His sire is 3/10 with his progeny at the track. Violet Jordan sends 2 well handicapped horses in McConnell (USA) and On The Cusp (IRE) who are both course specialists and money for either must be noted. Feeling Good is another well treated animal who is of interest returned to the fibresand where he does all his best running. He finished runner up here last year off 10lb higher and is another to note if the money arrives. Imaginary World (IRE) doesn’t win as often as she should but has been very consistent of late and is well treated on her best form. She has placed here at the track when trained by Alan McCabe. She finished in front of Mataajir (USA) 2 runs back and should confirm the form despite Mataajir being a course specialist. She is another that would be very much of interest if the money arrives. With many potential plots in the race it is hard to be confident of any but at the prices we are going to take a chance on Imaginary World and is our e/w selection.

Race 7: 5.30 – BetVictor casino On Your Mobile Handicap – class 5 – 4yo+(0-75) – 7f

The last race on the card sees some familiar fibresand specialists lock horns. Hellbender (IRE) is sure to go well winning over course and distance and placing on numerous occasions this year. Clubland (IRE) won his first 2 starts for this yard and despite running below par on turf in 2/3 at this track. Fairy Wing (IRE) and Our Ivor are 2 others who love it around here. Eutropius (IRE) took my eye when i saw him at Pontefract in the paddock where he duly bolted up. The ground went against him last time out on turf but he is very much of interest back at the track where he broke his maiden. There is more to come from this horse and he is a confident selection.

Remember to call our popular Southwell phoneline on 0905 005 0499 for our 2 best bets of the day. You can also join our All-Weather Email Selection Service to receive our selections via email each morning by visiting All-Weather Tips Email Selection Service.

We are back for more racing at Southwell on Wednesday 22nd May 2013 for an AW afternoon card, so make sure you check back then for the SouthwellRacecourseTips.co.uk race analysis.

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